July 7th 2024

Social Capital Research Institute
Yoshiro Minami

The first presidential debate between Trump and Biden makes Trump's victory certain

On June 28, CNN hosted the first US presidential debate. Biden's physical condition was seriously weakened, with a raspy voice and mumbling speech that is difficult to hear, which is common among the elderly. In contrast, Trump spoke clearly and in an easy-to-understand manner, making the debate look like a Trump one-man show, and it was clear to anyone that Trump was the only choice for the next presidential candidate. It is said that nearly 70% of the viewers are in favor of Trump, but there are always 20-30% of anti-Trump people who believe that Trump is no good no matter what, so if we exclude those anti-Trump people, it can be said that this debate was a sure sign of Biden's defeat.

Looking back on the past three and a half years of Biden's politics, Trump repeatedly asserted that Biden is a disaster for Americans, with a series of serious mismanagement such as the opening of the border and the disorderly acceptance of various immigrants, which caused domestic chaos, the US's ugly withdrawal from Afghanistan, which led to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the inflation that could have been prevented with appropriate measures being taken but was left unchecked, causing the economy to go haywire. Most Americans probably agreed. Furthermore, Biden has a likable character, since he has always spoken honestly about things that any politicians never mention in pubic and rather avoid talking the relevant issues. Before the election day in November four years ago, we were surprised and couldn't help but smile wryly when seeing a video on YouTube of him, saying to Democrats in a television that everything would be fine because he had built the largest election fraud system. In this debate, Biden asked Trump for accepting the results of the upcoming November election, and Trump replied that he would absolutely accept it, but his comments imply that Trump would not accept any results if there was another fraud, and some suspicious problems on the vote system.

When he was Vice President of the Obama administration, he frankly told several Chinese political leaders that Japan can be a nuclear-armed country in just one day if necessary. Naturally, most people guess that there were nuclear warheads at the US military bases in Japan, and the warheads could be easily mounted on Japanese missiles if Japan decided to do so. Since he spoke something in secret, the US military in Japan must have been quite flustered. It would be unnatural to think that there were no nuclear weapons at the US military bases in Japan, where more than 100,000 US troops and their families live. Nobody except Biden pointed out of it in public, but maybe some Japanese military experts thought that Biden’s comments should be right and their vague thoughts had been disappeared. The US military is well prepared, and it is said that nuclear submarines equipped with dozens of nuclear warheads are constantly patrolling the South China Sea. B2 bombers capable of dropping dozens of nuclear bombs are stationed in Guam to monitor China's movements.

In this context, the idea of ​​nuclear-armed Japan in one day must have been quite provoking and threatening Chinese defense military personnel. Since then, China has been trying to restrain Japan by releasing threatening videos in which it claims to turn Japan into a sea of ​​fire with nuclear weapons. China's greatest weakness is said to be its fragile missile defense system with precise interception capability, and some analysts say that it would be powerless to counter missile attacks from Japan and the United States, so China is still quite nervous about Japan's moves to acquire nuclear weapons.

Biden may be able to compete with Trump depending on his new vice presidential candidate, but it seems to be hard to win the presidential election so far.

CNN and the New York Times have started publishing opinions and articles questioning Biden's qualifications as president, but it is probably difficult to replace the Democratic presidential candidate at this point, and Biden will likely resist such a move, so the only way to compete with the Trump camp is to appoint a strong female vice presidential candidate other than Kamala Harris, who will take over from Biden even if he steps down as president, and fight the election. If we look for strong candidates at the state gubernatorial level, we can mention names such as Governor Kathleen Hochul, the first female to succeed Governor Cuomo of New York, who was dismissed due to sexual harassment allegations, and Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, with a serious criticism against Trump over his COVID-19 management. However, it is questionable whether they will actually participate in the presidential election, already showing signs of a losing battle.

The Democratic Party will officially decide on its presidential candidate at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago from August 19 to 22. Biden has already won almost all of the 4,000 delegates in the primaries, and Kamala Harris remains his running mate. Kamala's unpopularity within the Democratic Party and her numerous criticisms on her political incompetence will likely lead to growing opinions that at least the running mate should be a politician at the state gubernatorial level. In my opinion, New York Governor Hochul is one of attracting attention as vice president, who may compete on equal terms with Trump. She is over 60, experienced, well-skilled. She seems to have dignified stable personality to be more presidential than Biden. Above all, if she becomes the running mate, she could become the next president and the first female president of the United States, given Biden's health issues, and it is believed that she may be able to attract large number of female votes and anti-Trump votes across the country.

However, Governor Hochul’s political skills at the national level of defense, foreign affairs, immigration policy and other are completely unknown, and we cannot help worrying her abilities to manage these national political matters. Perhaps the choice of new attractive vice president candidate from superior Democratic Governors may be the ace-in-a-hole last card of Democratic Party against Trump, but there is only a month and a half left until the Democratic National Convention. Even if Governor Hochul were to be persuaded and named as the vice presidential candidate, she cannot be famous for the vice presidency in the USA and nobody knows her national political skills and so maybe Trump's overall advantage would not change.

On July 1, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump, who was sued for his involvement in the attack on the U.S. Capitol three and a half years ago, was exempt from the litigation on official duties, excluding personal matters, and practically Trump was found not guilty, since he was always involved in official duties excluding his sleeping, recuperating from sick, vacation, and eating. There is a strong possibility that he will be found not guilty in other several lawsuits, horrible false accusation for Pro-Trump supporter, and the Democratic Party's negative campaign strategy of filing insane complaints in lawsuit will be completely meaningless and useless.

Rudy Giuliani III, ex-mayor of New York and a former law advisor of Trump, was disbarred in New York or other states for his misleading legal actions against Biden. Peter Navarro, a former chairman of National Trade Council of Trump administration was forced to serve in federal prison in Miami, Florida for 4 months after March 2024 and Stephen Bannon has also served in federal prison in Washington D.C. since July 1. There are rumors in Japan that USA has always been playing respected “wild and crazy” actor in the world and now just started horrible modern witch-hunt play. Now at historical dramatic moment we are about to watch the new 21ststyle Civil War play between Republic Party by Trump and Democratic Party by “Deep State” on internet movie.

Furthermore, it is analyzed that the activities of Robert Kennedy Jr., who is popular as a third presidency candidate, will take away a large number of votes from anti-Trump voters for Biden. In the end, no matter how hard the Democratic Party tries from now on, the probability of Trump’s victory in the presidential election has been highly increasing. At this stage, the promising candidate Trump needs to worry only about "assassination" from various invisible enemies. The assassination of Prime Minister Abe has undermined confidence in Japanese security for VIPs, and even if Trump himself wanted to attend the state funeral, the risks were too great for him to attend and he could not attend it actually. The specific schedule of this summer's Republican National Convention has not been disclosed in public, and the announcement of the date and time may be delayed not to allow assassins for their preparations, and there is a possibility that the venue may even be changed. USA, as a country with a gun-oriented society with many assassinations in past, is the best skilled nation to protect VIP against any assassination in the world, but It's not something to be proud of the best skilled, but it signifies the fate of a sad superpower country with a dark history.

Trump will have to struggle to clean up Biden's mismanagement of the economy and other issues in the US.

The serious problems in Biden's economic countermeasures after Jan.20 2021 caused the sharp rise in the consumer price index and the rise in the policy interest rate. During the Trump era until January 2021, prices were stable at around 1.5%, but after Biden took office, prices rose sharply to 5% in just three months from February to May, and prices rose to 7.5% in one year until January 2022. Until then, the policy interest rate had been maintained at 0.25%, but after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, interest rates began to rise in response to rising price index, and when prices peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, the United States raised the policy interest rate to 1.75%. After that, the policy interest rate continued to be raised by 0.75% each time, and by maintaining a high interest rate of 5.5% from July 2023 onwards, prices were able to fall from 7% to 3%, and as of June 2024, interest rates are maintained at 5.5% and prices are maintained at 3% in the United States.

The sudden rise in prices is due to the rise in energy prices caused by Biden's CO2 regulations and the associated price hikes for grains, food, etc. In other words, Biden has restricted electricity generation from cheap fossil fuels and proposed strengthening electricity generation from expensive natural energy sources such as solar power, and so prices of various goods such as food have risen in anticipation of rising electricity generation costs. If Trump becomes president, he will abolish the restricted electricity generation regulations centered on fossil fuels. He greatly increases production of oil and coal in the United States. He revitalizes the fossil fuel power generation business and encourages farmers to produce a large amount of food by providing big governmental subsidies.

Finally he will be able to suppress prices of energy and food and quickly calm prices. After prices settle down to around 2%, it is analyzed that he will consult with Fed Chairman Powell and quickly lower the policy interest rate to below 2%. With interest rates dropping by more than 3%, the yen will appreciate from 160 yen to 130 yen per dollar, but it is believed that this will also stabilize prices in Japan. In conclusion Trump will achieve reduction of trade deficit between USA and Japan by increasing Yen and decreasing US Dollar.

The United States will once again withdraw from the COP (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), which was the cause of Biden's mismanagement, significantly relax CO2 regulations, and make a major shift in policy toward placing more importance on fossil fuel energy sources such as hybrids rather than electric vehicles and environmentally friendly thermal power plants rather than natural energy.

In terms of immigration policy, Trump will once again push forward with the construction of a wall on the Mexican border, and will in principle refuse entry to illegal immigrants, and will closely monitor illegal immigrants who were allowed to enter the country unchecked during Biden administration, and will take strict measures such as deporting illegal immigrants with criminal records, and in severe cases, imprisoning and forcibly deporting them. Since Biden took office, the number of American people overdosing on sedative opioids and the synthetic drug fentanyl, which turns people into zombies, has increased, and the number of deaths per year has doubled from 40,000 during the Trump era to 80,000 since Biden took office. In particular, there has been a sharp increase in the number of deaths from synthetic drugs with performance of a high lethality.

Mexican criminal organizations have a history of importing cheap chemicals from China through illegal channels, processing them, and exporting them to the United States, and it is likely that after Trump takes office, he will team up with the Mexican government to send in troops to investigate the routes taken and impose strict, wide-ranging bans on the import of chemicals from China in both the United States and Mexico. In the worst case scenario, we cannot help excluding China from the WTO system. Conversely, if China ignores this issue, the trade with the United States will be significantly restricted, and we believe that China will crack down on illegal traders.

The return of the Trump administration will calm the current chaotic and turbulent world situation.

The world situation has become chaotic due to the Biden administration's fatal diplomatic mismanagement since his taking office on January 20, 2021. A military coup took place in Myanmar on February 1, shortly after his taking office, and a painful political upheaval has occurred in which the people seeking democratization continue to be massacred. In August, the Taliban suddenly took power, and Biden issued an order to withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of August 2021, but in the midst of the chaos, a suicide bombing occurred against US soldiers and civilians, killing 13 US soldiers on duty. The biggest problem is that Biden unilaterally announced in April that US troops in Afghanistan would be completely withdrawn by September 11. The withdrawal decision should be kept in top secret to prevent the enemy side from knowing about it for taking advantages. Rather, the withdrawal should be done carefully by analyzing the information of soldiers stationed there and preparing a system to withdraw little by little while continuing to fight the Taliban. However Biden mistook the withdrawal decision to announce its deadline in public. Consequently the Taliban took great advantage of the situation and the U.S. troops could not help abandoning a large amount of expensive weapons, which resulted in a truly disgraceful withdrawal. Political leaders around the world learned that Biden, the chief commander of the U.S. military, was a complete amateur who does not even know the basics of fighting.

It is also said that Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was an arbitrary decision by Putin, who was overconfident that the U.S. military was extremely weak due to the U.S. disgraceful withdrawal from Afghanistan. Furthermore, Israel's invasion of Gaza in October 2023 resulted in the deaths of many civilians, including women and children. Since the Biden administration took office, hundreds of thousands of civilians and soldiers have already been killed or injured. If the United States had shown stronger leadership, it was believed that Russia's invasion of Ukraine had been prevented. It is also believed that Trump would have conducted extremely intense military negotiations, including threat of nuclear weapons, when Putin was increasing his military presence on the Ukrainian border, and forced him to give up the invasion of Ukraine.

Many Americans have already realized that the reason to lead the world situation to chaos and uncertainty lies in Biden's qualifications as president, and even loyal Democrats begin to have strong doubts about whether Biden is the real president chosen by the American people. In fact, suspicions of large-scale mail-in vote fraud on the presidential election day of November 3, 2020 have not yet been dispelled. There have been statistically impossible events such as the Biden Jump, and many Trump supporters still claim that the election itself was invalid. Before the presidential election day of November 5, 2024, Americans are extremely critical of the Democratic Party for the allegations of election fraud four years ago and the numerous subsequent mismanagement of Biden, who was elected as a result of that. Many people believe that if another fraudulent incident were to occur, this time there would be a civil war in the United States, and there are concerns that a civil war could break out. First of all, we should pray that the election itself will end peacefully and safely.

If Trump returns to power, he will be able to successfully conclude ceasefire negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. He will force Israel to stop its invasion of Gaza, and he will restore diplomatic relations with Taiwan without fear of what Xi Jinping may say, deepening the political ties between the United States and Taiwan. This will also be a tribute to the late Prime Minister Abe, and I believe it will come from a strong friendship that responds to Shinzo's feelings that a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency. Xi Jinping probably understands Trump's manliness, so I believe that the dictator who made so much noise will remain silent for a long time. Trump will never take a weak stance like Biden. He will not be intimidated by armed conflict, but will conclude diplomatic negotiations one after another, calm military conflicts, and quietly calm the turbulent world situation under Biden.

In the chaotic world situation, it is said that we need political leaders who are willing to sacrifice their lives for the people, who are willing to negotiate with political negotiators, who are willing to be open and courageous in their pursuit of peace. There are foolish media opinions that focus on Trump's age, but it is precisely because of his age that Trump is trying to return to the presidency in full of problems, without the sake of vested interests and money. He is trying to return to the difficult presidency again in order to demonstrate so called Trump-power, which is willing to sacrifice his life and negotiate without any self-interest for the sake of the world and people in peace. There are the overwhelming military and economic superiority of the United States behind Trump-power, but it is Trump's own loyal passion for his country USA, forcing him to take the difficult steps back to the presidency.

Trump-power will change our world toward “Regionalism”, a new style of Nationalism.

The elite city boys of the powerful federal officials so called “Deep State” in Washington D.C. may laugh the old fashion style of Trump like John Wayne and Trump-supporters like ignorant countrymen, but, after knowing characters of Putin, Xi Jinping and others in Authoritarian states, they may easily realize the real political world to be quite human and fall into an illusion of mafia actors in the movie of “Godfather”. Rudy Giuliani III swept criminal mafia away from New York and Trump had much experience to fight against bad guys in the cities. Now the world needs professional experienced politician like Trump, who can negotiate with tough or battle-hardened leaders like Putin, in order for ending military battle in Ukraine or opening diplomatic relations with Taiwan without giving in to threats of China.

The SWIFT economic sanctions have already significantly weakened Russia's domestic economic base, and the two-and-a-half-year war of aggression against Ukraine has further weakened the country's power, and the double whammy of Ukraine war and SWIFT economic sanctions is changing the poverty level of the people to a serious state. Economic sanctions against Russia will probably continue even after the ceasefire, but if national independence be exempted from SWIFT economic sanctions for autonomous states within the Russian federation that are seeking independence, it would be expected that one after another, autonomous states will abandon Putin of Russia and become more independent-minded. Ironically, there is a growing view that Putin's leadership will also weaken after the ceasefire in Ukraine, and that the Russian Federation may instead move in the direction of disintegration.

After restoration of government of the Trump administration, the world political situation will change significantly after 2025. This means that realistic and conservative political movements of nationalism would become stronger not only in Japan but also in various countries around the world. There would be new movement of conservative politics with slogan of Nation First, ”of the national own people, by the national own people, for the national own people”, and this movement may manifest itself as new style of Nationalism (statism) not only in developed countries such as Japan, the United States, and Europe, but also in the Global South or other developing countries.

This popular worldwide movement of Nationalism may be divided into narrower range of a country and called as “Regionalism” seeking for regional autonomy independence with well-prepared national system. This new Regionalism movement may arise in Iran and North Korea, symbols of dictatorship and authoritarianism. We may see new style of Regionalism in war-torn Russian Federation and China facing economic hardship after the collapse of the real estate bubble. For instance Tatarstan Autonomous Republic, one of states within state of Russian Federation, has been challenging for its independence in past. Tatarstan has the beautiful capital named Kazan and national anthem for regional independence. They may have their own military and diplomatic capabilities for its independence. The new relationship between Tatarstan and Russian Federation may resemble relationship between Canada and Commonwealth of British Nations. In case of Guangzhou or Shanghai, people living in there may ask more independent and liberal autonomous economic system for the Beijing Government.

Japan will need to respond politically in anticipation of Trump's return to power.

In Japan, the trend toward conservative politics has been evident since around 2020, and conservative parties such as “Sanseito”, “Party of Do-it-Yourself”, and “Nippon Hoshuto”, “Conservative Party of Japan”, are expected to significantly increase their seats in the 2025 elections of House of Representatives and House of Councilors. During the past three years of the Kishida administration, Liberal Democratic Party so called LDP has been making a liberal impression of the drastic left-wing after passing the deregulated immigration policy and LGBT policy in the Diet. The prime minister Kishida is said to show the weak characters against USA and China, hegemonies with strong economic or military power. For instance Kishida took steps down to the blind diplomacy toward the Biden administration showing his special loyalty for LGBT and financial support of Ukraine. Most people hates various stealth tax increases and little financial support against inflation during administration of Kishida whose relatives relate to Ministry of Finance. According to poll of NHK in prudent research, support rate of people in Japan shows only 21%, the lowest figure, and the disapproval rate reaches to 60% which means 2 negative out of 3 of Japanese People. Most Japanese may feel uncomfortable to see him who looks like a loyal subordinate of King Biden.

The character of President Trump was analyzed in past and it is said that Trump will evaluate thoughts, qualities, and abilities of political foreign leaders carefully, but he suddenly changes his way of dealings immediately after he regards them as shallow people without any gains or merits from them. Trump may have a normal conversation, but he would not have discussion with them seriously after his screening. For instance, when ex-president Moon Jae-in of South Korea was in power, Trump seemed not to show much respect and avoid conversation with him, after knowing special relationship with the regime of North Korea. It was said that the complete withdrawal of US troops had been considered on the table to avoid the military risks if a military conflict occurs but finally USA decided to maintain the status quo. Although Trump once invited China's Xi Jinping to his villa in Florida for dinner at the beginning, he has raised tariffs on China after the COVID-19 pandemic turned hostile, and has been thoroughly confronting China through peaceful means.

It is not known who will become president and prime minister in Japan after the LDP presidential election in this coming September, but some lawmakers will probably choose the right candidate after carefully thinking suitable for new ally partner of the US president with high probability of Trump. If we were to choose a new leader like the Prime Minister Abe, who could work hand in hand with Trump to calm the international situation for the sake of peace, the mainstream view among online commentators is that the only candidate, who can inherit Prime Minister Abe's passion, is Ms. Sanae Takaichi, and Lady Takaichi will be the only choice for the next president of the LDP and new prime minister in Japan. There are several other good candidates in the LDP election. Ordinary Japanese people, who are not type of well-educated elite officers in Kasumigaseki Tokyo, love unusual and strange Americans like Trump, who looks like a man with an old-fashioned samurai spirit. Surprisingly there are so many Trump fans in Japan, and the phrase "Trump! Trump! In awake and asleep" was popular four years ago, but I have a feeling it will become popular again. While keeping an eye on the developments in the US presidential election, I plan to watch the LDP election drama in the same way of watching a Netflix movie. --- The end of this articles ---

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[Profile of Yoshiro Minami and Social Capital Research Institute]
Yoshiro Minami is the special project nickname of Social Capital Research Institute (SCRI) in Osaka Japan. The SCRI is non-profit research organization to analyze new social and economic system, and recently started business to make special research analysis on Japanese economy or politics in order for needs of the Press, Journalist or other in the United States or Europe. SCRI is run by the director of Kazuo Higashi, who runs the non-profit research organization and social venture to take care of the disabled people. The following domain sites are related to SCRI and others.
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