April 9, 2025
Social Capital Research Institute
MINAMI Yoshiro

Seeing difficulties as opportunities and continuing to work in a way that contributes to society, it is life itself.

It is often said that "Pinch is Chance" in Japan. Pinch is a Japanese-English word that means "Being in a difficult position." "Pinch is Chance" is an encouraging phrase that says to persevere, if you can show positive, proactive thinking and use your wisdom to tackle difficult problems, a new path will open someday. In fact, looking back at the past, I have encountered various difficult problems, but I realize that I am who I am today because I was able to solve the problems each time with a belief of "Pinch is Chance." In a personal matter, about 30 years ago, my weight exceeded 110 kg due to my unhealthy lifestyle at the time, and my doctor told me that if you continued your lifestyle like this, you would develop fatty liver and cirrhosis in 20 years and finally you would pass away. So, I have been taking Urso & Juvela Tablets every morning and evening for 30 years, and thanks to other medicines, my liver function and liver values have remained within normal ranges at the age of 70. I also started swimming once a week or two weeks 15 years ago, and now I continue swimming despite several month absence in busy time. Now I can swim 3 km in 2 hours using a mixed swimming style of 500 meters each, breaststroke, crawl, and backstroke.

Once you reach age 70, you can't complain if God calls you to the afterlife at any time. In fact, the average life expectancy of people over 70 is said to be 15 years, and the survival probability is said to be 50% at age 80, 20% at age 90, and a few% at age 100. If the medical technology to treat the three major causes of death - cancer, heart disease, and brain disease - improves, the chances of survival will increase dramatically. Even at 70, I am still actively running a small welfare business. Due to a weak cash management in my private financing, in the event of sudden death in my presidency, there is a high risk that 30 employees (including 15 with disability certificates) will face severe situation in business continuity or may end up unemployment. However, I have not been taking good countermeasures against the sudden death, since I am so busy with work and have no time and enough income to go to the gym, even if I want to get in good shape for health. This is truly "Pinch is Chance" in my life. Two weeks ago, I finally decided to start stair training, which I had not been able to do so before. I thank a minister in the Ishiba Cabinet to teach me in negative means, since his physique promoted me to decide the stair training. There were 800 steps in the stair training on my commute and company building before and after work, and it was tough for the first week, but I have managed to continue it for now. If I can strengthen my legs and hips in this way, then this is just good outcome of "Pinch is Chance".

I could pass the first hurdle of active age 70, so call “Koki Gen-Eki” in Japanese. Next goal is the second hurdle of active age 80, so called “Sanjyu Gen-Eki“. I have secret life plan to challenge the third hurdle of active age 90, so called “Sotsujyu Gen-Eki” and the fourth goal of active age 100, so called “Hyakujyu Gen-Eki”, despite awareness on the difficulties to reach these goals. In past some elderly business owner taught me how to live a long and fulfilling life. He said "training old body and work actively for community or society until the moment you depart for the afterlife." He added some stern words: "You are healthy, not sick, nevertheless, you should not even think about living a comfortable life doing nothing in a nursing home or somewhere. If you choose a comfortable life doing nothing in health, your life will be over." Working doesn't just mean working for a salary, but working includes a hobby, volunteer work, or work that doesn't pay for labor, such as home gardening or house cleaning, cooking. The point is to continue living a life where you think it worthy to work on ways to make people happy and be useful. Now I keep his advice and continue to work out of work. The publication of this article, which started at the hard time of COVID-19, is one example of my work out of work.

With Trump's tariff war with China breaking out, it is inevitable for us Japanese to encourage Ishiba resignation and Takaichi appointment.

I’m afraid that it is too presumptuous to compare President Trump to an eccentric elderly businessman like me, secretly aiming to be a centenarian at the age of 70, but I admire the recent tariff hike by the elderly President Trump, who will turn age 79 in this June, just prior to active age 80. Foreign government officials and people in the Wall Street financial institutions or other regard Trump tariffs hike as new economic war with China and the insane decision of an old man, so called “wild and crazy” American. In fact, if you look at the tariff rates presented to each country, you can easily understand that the tariffs on China and its hegemonic countries such as Southeast Asia, and even allied countries with pro-China governments, are abnormally high. The lowest tariff is 10%, and this rate is applied to countries where China's economic hegemony does not extend. China already has a 20% tariff imposed, and so the tariff of 104% is so high that it is difficult to conclude normal trade transactions. Tariffs are over 30% for Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%), Laos (48%), Indonesia (32%), Cambodia (49%), Sri Lanka (44%), Bangladesh (37%), Myanmar (44%), and Taiwan (32%). These tariffs are applied in anticipation of cases where Chinese products are exported from countries where China has economic hegemony. Taiwan's tariffs are heavily influenced by the pro-China Kuomintang. This is a well-prepared US strategy for economic warfare. India, which continues to import oil from Russia, also has a high tariff of 26%. Russia has been notified that if Russia does not agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine, secondary tariffs, that is, retaliatory high tariffs will be imposed on countries that import oil and other products from Russia. If this is carried out, India and China will face even higher tariffs, and it is expected that they will essentially have to give up trade transactions with the United States.

In essence, the United States is promoting complete decoupling with China, and the announcement of these high tariffs is a declaration of full-scale economic war with the Chinese Communist Party. The United States also imposes relatively high tariffs of 20% and 24% on its allies, the EU and Japan, which have a large trade relationship with China. It would have been better if Japan had recognized in advance that the United States had begun a full-scale economic war with China, but unfortunately, in Japan, which is supposed to be a close ally of the United States, Prime Minister Ishiba, who is well known for being pro-China and anti-Abe, continues to be in power, and even when he visited President Trump in the United States, he was not consulted on such important matters at all, making it clear that the Ishiba administration is not trusted at all by President Trump, whose best friend was ex-Prime Minister Abe, unfortunately assassinated in July 2022. The high tariff of 24% in Japan is a clear sign of Trump’s distrust in Ishiba and other pro-China members of parliament in LDP, Liberal Democratic Party in Japan.

The common people in Japan have been worried that the Ishiba cabinet, described as “Kishiba” administration with full support of Kishida, ex-Prime Minister, and the pro-China faction of ruling the LDP, has been thoroughly excluding the conservative politicians who are good successors of Abe, even after Trump administration in power. The ordinary conservative Japanese are afraid that the anti-Abe movement of Ishiba and Kishida would fundamentally destroy the good Japan-U.S. relationship that has been built up over many years in an era of Trump administration. The most Japanese gradually begin to recognize that the pro-China Ishiba & Kishida, so called Kishiba, administration caused the shocking high tariff rate of Japan’s 24%, close to the pro-China South Korea's 25%, and should not be allowed to continue to hold real political power. In my past reports, I have repeatedly recommended the immediate resignation of present Prime Minister Ishiba, after the crushing defeat in the elections of last October, and his immediate replacement by new Prime Minister Takaichi, the successor to the ex-Prime Minister Abe, a mainstream conservative leader who we have deep trust against China’s silent invasion. However, perhaps because the LDP itself has been dominated by pro4 China forces and LDP has lost its ability to purify the government system, Prime Minister Ishiba continues to maintain his position in power, ignoring the national interest. Former Prime Minister Kishida should be condemned for sinful acts to force Ishiba into power, and present Prime Minister Ishiba should be further condemned for remaining in the prime ministerial position.

The most effective countermeasure against Trump tariffs would be the announcement that Prime Minister Ishiba, controlled by pro-China forces, immediately resigns for the sake of Japan and hands over the reins to new Prime Minister Takaichi. This would be the perfect opportunity to change bad situation to good one like “Pinch is Chance”. If we be asked when it be the best time to shift our cabinet from Ishiba to Takaichi, the answer would be simple “Just now” to save domestic automobile industries and others. We believe that new Japanese leader Takaichi would be good partner for president Trump since she has been fighting against pro-China polices or politicians in her career. She is one of the strong conservative leaders as Abe’s disciple. Also she is a tough negotiator for Trump to have severe discussion on tariff hike, but President Trump may appreciate deepening his thought to achieve ultimate goal for MAGA, since she has much knowledge of recent cutting-edge technologies in Japan which may be useful for the US to develop domestic industries.

The economic war caused by Trump's high tariffs will continue until the Chinese Communist Party collapses completely and China achieves democratization.

The winners and losers of the economic war caused by Trump's high tariffs between the US and China are already clear from the start. The US will be completely victorious and China will be completely defeated, forcing the Chinese Communist Party into an even more severe situation where it will not be able to maintain its national economy. Almost all import products from China to the US can be replaced with other foreign or domestic products within several months or so. The advantage of Chinese import products is only lower prices than others, and so It takes time to replenish Chinese products but economic allies would be able to easily supply the US with their new attractive products. It will be great new opportunities for economic allies to do trade business with the US, while China is losing many business interests in the US. We must know that customers like the US with money of dollar are always taking advantages over supplier like China whose products are not differentiated in qualities.

In past China has been scattering its money around the world and supporting its economic hegemony after obtaining the abundant dollar funds from its trade surplus with the US. Regarding the money supply to China, Trump is dissatisfied with allies, the EU and Japan, since both the EU and Japan have trade deficits with China also. In results China has been obtaining ample hard currencies of dollar and euro, yen, and Chinese Communist Party can keep its strong position in controlling the hegemonic countries with hard currencies and have influence on business relationship with the advanced nations. Trump high tariffs will worsen Chinese domestic export industry, and then cause to deepen the economic recession. Chinese people's discontent grows, and the US strategy is clear and simple to decrease the inflow of dollars, euros, and yen into China by reducing the trade surplus. In result the US restrains China's activities for economic hegemony abroad. In other words, high tariffs will develop into not only economic warfare but also financial warfare.

The SWIFT financial sanctions imposed by Japan, the United States, and Europe are effective against countries that have launched wars of aggression such as Russia, but it is difficult to apply to huge economic nation such as China that have a strong influence on the global economy. Rather, if Japan, the United States, and Europe work together to impose high tariffs, set up non-tariff barriers, they can reduce the trade deficit with China and decrease the amount of hard currencies flowing into China. Then the Chinese Communist Party's economic hegemony abroad will gradually weaken, and pro-China countries, including those in Southeast Asia, will accelerate their movement away from China. High tariffs will also worsen the political and economic situation of countries that are under China's economic hegemony and allies of pro-China governments around the world. Some of them will fall into an unprecedented recession and even go bankrupt.

We believe that preferential tariffs such as 10% or less will be given to allies of the US that join the economic war against China, while high tariffs over 20% will continue to be imposed on half-hearted countries that choose equidistance diplomacy by maintaining neutrality between the United States and China. Countries that follow China's economic hegemony, such as Iran, will also need to be prepared to endure an economic recession together with the Chinese Communist Party. In response to the economic war launched by the United States during the season of fresh greenery from April to May, every foreign government has the choice of whether to follow the United States and become an ally of the United States, maintain half-hearted neutrality, or enter the Chinese economic sphere that is completely dependent on China.

It is unclear how long this economic war will last, but we expect it to continue at least until 2028, the four years of the Trump administration. Or, I believe that the economic sanctions will continue until the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party regime, that is, until President Xi Jinping resigns, the new leader of the post-Xi Jinping regime declares China's democratization, and the first national elections in Chinese history are held in which ordinary Chinese people participate in votes of democratic processes. If the national elections are only called elections in name, and the Chinese Communist Party continues to pull the strings behind the scenes, as in Hong Kong, the economic sanctions will not be eliminated. Until the complete collapse of China as an authoritarian state, which also means complete democratization, the economic sanctions will continue, and signs of its collapse will be visible in the intensification of antigovernment activities by the Chinese people. Just as the Soviet Union collapsed and became Russia, when the Chinese Communist Party collapses and a new free and democratic state is established by the Chinese, for the Chinese, this tariff war will end, and the new order of free trade will return to the world. At this moment people in the world realize that Trump is one of the best presidents in the history of the United States.

The End

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